Predicting and Retaining At-Risk Telco Customers through Improved Recall

2 min readFeb 3


In the fast-paced world of telecommunications, retaining customers is critical to the success of any company. One of the biggest challenges faced by companies is predicting which customers are at risk of churning, or leaving the company. This is where the Telco Churn project comes into play. The aim of this project is to develop a model that can predict customers who are at risk of leaving the company, so that the company can take actions to retain them.

The focus of the Telco Churn project is to minimize the number of False Negatives, which occur when the model predicts a customer will not churn when they actually do. A False Positive, on the other hand, is when the model predicts a customer will churn when they actually do not. The goal is to retain as many customers as possible, so False Positives do not matter much, even if they may result in offering expensive incentives to loyal customers. The metric of interest in this project is Recall, which measures the proportion of churned customers that have been correctly predicted by the model. The higher the recall, the less False Negatives, and the more confident the company is in retaining its customers.

To achieve this goal, the Telco Churn project involves several key steps:

-Data Collection: The first step is to gather relevant data about the customers, such as their demographics, usage patterns, billing information, and customer service interactions. This data is crucial in developing a robust model that can accurately predict churn.

-Data Preprocessing: Once the data is collected, it must be preprocessed to remove any irrelevant or redundant information and to format the data in a way that can be easily analyzed by the model.

-Model Development: Next, the model is developed using machine learning algorithms such as decision trees, random forests, and gradient boosting. The model is trained on the preprocessed data and fine-tuned to achieve the highest possible recall.

-Model Evaluation: The model is then evaluated using metrics such as accuracy, precision, and recall to determine its performance. If the results are not satisfactory, the model can be further fine-tuned until it achieves the desired performance.

-Deployment: Once the model is fully developed and evaluated, it can be deployed in production to start predicting customers who are at risk of churning.

The expected result of the Telco Churn project is a model that can accurately predict customers who are at risk of leaving the company. By minimizing the number of False Negatives and increasing recall, the company can be more confident in retaining its customers and ensuring their success in the competitive telecommunications market.